Campaign Update (15 March)

While the Peilingwijzer is the preferred of the national broadcaster NOS, it doesn’t actually cover all of the main polling organistions in the county. Peil.nl, owned by long-established pollster Maurice de Hond, withdrew permission in 2019 for its polls to be used for by Peilingwijzer in a legal dispute. For completion’s sake, I’m going to compare the latest Peil.nl poll with the most recent average by Peilingwijzer.

PARTYPEIL.NL 14 MARCHPEILINGWIJZER 9 MARCH
VVD3139
PVV2419
CDA1818
D661714
GroenLinks812
SP1010
PvdA1113
ChristenUnie66
PvdD66
50Plus12
SGP33
Denk22
FvD64
JA2131
Volt31
BIJ11

Given that Peil.nl’s latest poll is significantly closer to the present day (they will be releasing a new poll on election eve), it is worth at least looking at a couple of trends. The momentum around D66 and its leader Sigrid Kaag may indeed end up manifesting just in time for the election to the detriment of GroenLinks, who would lose almost half their seats. The suspicion that Thierry Baudet’s FvD is slowly on the up again as a result of his unconventional campaign is confirmed here as well, as is the sense that JA21 and Volt will be making their debut in the Tweede Kamer. Probably the most surprising difference between Peil.nl and the Peilingwijzer average is the relatively low number for the VVD and the relatively high number for the PVV, suggesting that even though Rutte’s party will most likely end up retaining its crown as the largest, it may not be by the thumping margin other polls suggest. If the upcoming polls from Kantar, IPSOS and I&O Research echo the Peil.nl numbers, then there has indeed been a late shift for a number of parties.

Sundays are usually the quietest day of the week, but this weekend the “Climate Alarm” rang out in cities, towns and villages across the country. At 2pm, tens of thousands across the country gathered in public places like parks and squares (1.5 metres apart) to bang pots and pans or play the musical instrument of their choice to call for more action on climate change. A number of political parties (mostly on the left) had representatives in attendance at their local rally.

Around 1,600 of the 9,200 polling locations were open today for the first of two days of early polling. As I’ve mentioned before, these are meant to be for those in at-risk groups who don’t other qualify for a postal vote. However, it appears that this won’t be checked, and with booths at six train stations open in mostly the Randstad area, other voters will also be able to cast an early ballot if they like. The Netherlands doesn’t have much of a history with early voting, so it will be a worthwhile experiment to see whether this is best left as a one-off, or whether having additional days to vote increases turnout.